Weather is Back to Driving Grain Markets

July Report Analysis 071219
Did you know it takes 3,000 gal. of water to produce 1 bu. of corn? To help make sure that water is available and minimize weather’s impact on yield there are long- and short-term steps you can take. ( Darrell Smith )

Grain futures markets rallied to end the week following USDA's latest Crop Production report.

"Soybeans jumped up thanks to hot weather ahead," says Virgina McGathey of McGathey Commodities Coorporation. "Weather is really pushing the market higher becuase there's worry of potential crop damage."

The weather driven price increases now outweighing what appeared to be a relatively bearish July report from USDA.

Brian Doherty of Stewart-Peterson telling AgDay's Clinton Griffiths that the market is ignoring these latest numbers and choosing to wait for August. 

"The big report is in August and the USDA said that they will do a resurvey to get the acres," says Doherty. "On top of that, with the crop so late, by all accounts anywhere from 15 to 30 days late, there isn't a lot of stock to put into the projected yield numbers." 

Doherty says the August and September reports will simply mean more. 

"The big numbers are yet to come," says Doherty. 

He's also watching trade negotiations with China.

"There's been a lot of scuttlebutt that China will make some good faith purchases," says Doherty. "Again, that would be a step in the right direction but we haven't seen that yet."

Doherty says that could be a market mover but right now it's all about weather.

"This time of year, it's all weather," says Doherty. "The next 30 days are make or break and this is where your crop either accelerates upward or doesn't."

He says with crops so far behind it's hard to trust typical crop ratings. 

"They do confirm the crop is late and it's a low rated crop," says Doherty. "Current basis levels continue to indicate that farmers are either slow sellers, users are strong buyers or both, which may mean there's just not as much corn around as we thought."