As traders, farmers and analysts wait for USDA to deliver the June WASDE report on Tuesday, opinions are mixed as to whether they will update planted acres and yield estimates.
“With the WASDE, traditionally, the USDA is only really talking about demand, how much and how big is the backdrop in South America? And if it's big, are they taking away our exports? That's not the case this time,” Craig Turner, title, told AgDay host Clinton Griffiths. “Sometimes the USDA does step in early, and they know they need to start ratcheting down these kinds of things. I wouldn't be surprised if the acres are lower. But with the yield it's real early, and you know, they could publish a 176 bu. per acre corn yield.”
According to Don Rose of U.S. Commodities, it’s unlikely farmers will see the acreage change a ton.
“This is one that historically we don't change the acres a lot. So, I think if the acres are changed at all, it's going to be a bit of a surprise,” he told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. “The yield very seldom changes, but history says that we probably do change the yield on the corn. If you look at it, June 30, we're going to have the updated acres report, and the government usually doesn't want to jump around, make assumptions.”
According to Brian Splitt of AgMarket.net, USDA could update yield, but like Rose, he doesn’t think they will touch acres.
“I just don't think the USDA really recognizes the yield loss that I think we're going to end up having,” he told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. “It's only May, traditionally they're not really going to touch yield in May and they've suggested that that the planting pace is not something that's going to cause them to adjust their yield number. I will be concerned if yield gets left unchanged.”
At the end of the day, Rose doesn’t think this June report will mean as much as some think it should.
“The July report is going to be more important,” he said.
Still Turner reminds farmers and traders that the corn market bottomed out after the last WASDE report.
“We had, you know, the 2.5 billion carryout in corn, like the 900 million plus carryout in soybeans, and that was the day that the China U.S. trade pack officially did not happen,” he recalled. “Lows were scored after that. So, it'll be interesting to see what happens.”