U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are increased slightly this month on higher beginning stocks and production. Winter wheat is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,198 million with modest increases in all winter wheat classes and total wheat production is now at 1,827 million. U.S. exports are raised 25 million bushels to 950 million on tightening Russian exportable supplies. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are lowered 9 million bushels to 946 million, down 12 percent from last year. The projected season-average farm price is up $0.10 per bushel with the midpoint at $5.10, compared to the revised 2017/18 price of $4.75.
World 2018/19 wheat supplies decreased this month by 1.2 million tons on production declines in Russia, the EU, and Mexico not completely offset by higher projected production from India and the United States. Russia’s production is lowered by 3.5 million tons to 68.5 million on drier-than-normal conditions this spring in winter wheat areas and excessive wetness in spring wheat regions lowering plantings. Russia’s wheat production is projected down 19 percent from last year’s record 85.0 million tons. EU wheat production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 149.4 million on dry conditions this spring for winter wheat in Germany and Poland. India’s wheat production is raised 2.0 million tons to 97.0 million, based on record yields and supported by reports of higher procurement for the 2018/19 crop compared to last year.
Projected global 2018/19 trade is lower, mainly on reduced Russian exportable supplies with a smaller crop. Russia’s exports are reduced 1.5 million tons to 35.0 million, but Russia still remains the world’s leading wheat exporter. Global imports are lowered, mainly on reduced imports for India as the government recently raised its wheat import tariff. Projected 2018/19 world consumption is 3.0 million tons lower, primarily on reduced feed usage for Russia and the EU. Global ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons this month to 266.2 million but are still below last year’s record 272.4 million.
This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning stocks, lower feed and residual use, greater corn used for ethanol production, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down largely reflecting a 75-million-bushel increase in projected exports for 2017/18 to 2.300 billion bushels, which if realized would be the highest since 2007/08. Exports during the month of April were record high, besting the prior monthly shipment record set in November 1989. Export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high. Projected 2018/19 corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels, offsetting a 50-million-bushel reduction in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of sorghum. Corn feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels with increased ethanol by-product production and higher expected prices. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks are lowered 105 million bushels to 1.577 billion bushels, which if realized, would be the lowest level since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised 10 cents at the midpoint with a range of $3.40 to $4.40 per bushel.
The 2018/19 U.S. sorghum outlook is for a 50-million-bushel increase in forecast exports offset by reduced FSI use. Exports are raised reflecting expectations of China’s demand for U.S. sorghum, based on the announcement by The Ministry of Commerce May 18 terminating the anti-dumping and subsidy investigation on imported sorghum originating from the United States.
This month’s 2018/19 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, reduced trade and lower stocks relative to last month. Russia corn production is down based on government data indicating lower-than-expected planted area. Barley production is reduced for Ukraine, India, and the EU, but raised for Argentina. For 2017/18, Brazil corn production is lowered, as below-normal rainfall in the Center-West and South during May reduces yield prospects for second-crop corn. Area is also reduced based on the latest government statistics.
Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include lower forecast corn exports for Russia, with reductions in corn imports for Vietnam, Iran, and Algeria. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for the EU, Brazil, and Vietnam that more than offset increases for Ukraine and South Africa.
U.S. 2017/18 rice ending stocks are raised 3.0 million cwt this month on a 1.0-millioncwt increase in imports and a 2.0-million-cwt decrease in exports. Both changes reflect the pace of trade to date. The import increase is primarily for long-grain aromatics from Asia.
The entire export reduction was medium- and short-grain and is now projected at the lowest level in more than a decade. The 2017/18 season-average farm price for all rice is lowered $0.10 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $12.30 to $12.70. Total supplies for 2018/19 are raised 4.0 million cwt on increased beginning stocks and imports. Domestic and residual usage is raised 1.0 million cwt on larger supplies. Exports are raised 2.0 million cwt following the unusually low medium- and short-grain sales from the previous market year. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 1.0 million cwt and prices are unchanged.
Global supplies for 2018/19 are lowered 2.1 million tons primarily on reduced China production. China’s harvested area is decreased 0.5 million hectares and production is down 2.3 million tons. The reduced China supplies are accounted for by a 1.0-million-ton reduction in consumption and a 1.3-million-ton decrease in stocks. Global consumption is lowered 0.6 million tons and exports are raised fractionally. With reduced supplies more than offsetting lower use, global ending stocks are down 1.5 million tons.
This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush for 2017/18. Soybean crush for 2017/18 is raised 25 million bushels to 2,015 million reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Higher soybean meal domestic disappearance reflects strongerthan-expected use for the marketing year through April. Soybean meal exports are raised based in part on commitments through May. Soybean ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 505 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected at 385 million bushels, down 30 million from last month.
Price forecasts for 2018/19 are unchanged this month. The 2018/19 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.75 to $11.25 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $330 to $370 per short ton and 29.5 to 33.5 cents per pound, respectively. The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and stocks compared to last month. Higher global soybean production is partly offset by lower rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is up 0.7 million tons to 355.2 million mainly on higher production for Brazil. A higher trend yield for the 2018/19 Brazil soybean crop reflects harvest and yield results for the 2017/18 crop, which is increased 2 million tons to 119 million. With higher production, soybean exports for Brazil are revised up for both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 marketing years. Ending stocks for Brazil are also increased with higher production and a lower crush estimate for 2016/17.
Global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 87.0 million with
higher stocks for Brazil partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and Argentina. Stocks for Argentina are lowered mainly on a 2.0-million-ton reduction to the 2017/18 crop to 37 million. Other changes include lower EU rapeseed production which is reduced on lower yields for Germany and Poland, where crops experienced warm and dry weather conditions through key flowering stages.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY
The 2018 forecast for total meat production is lowered from last month, but production forecasts are unchanged for 2019. Beef production for 2018 is lowered primarily as lighter carcass weights more than offset higher second-quarter steer and heifer and cow slaughter. Pork production for 2018 is lowered on the current pace of second quarter slaughter and lower-expected commercial slaughter in the third quarter. Slightly
heavier expected hog carcass weights in the second and third quarters partially offset declines in slaughter. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released June 28th and will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2018. Broiler production for 2018 is raised on the pace of second-quarter production data and stronger growth in production during the second half of the year. Turkey production in the second quarter of 2018 is raised on the current pace of slaughter; no changes are made to outlying quarters. Egg production for 2018 is raised on recent hatchery data.
The 2018 beef import forecast is raised on increased shipments from Oceania, while the beef export forecast is raised largely on strong Asian demand reflected in recent trade data. The 2018 pork export forecast is raised on continued strong shipments to a number of key markets and expectations of continued pork exports to Mexico. Pork exports for 2019 are raised on expected strong demand to a number of key trading partners. Second-half 2018 turkey export forecasts are raised as U.S. prices remain attractive. The 2018 broiler trade forecast is unchanged from the previous month. No changes are made to 2019 beef and poultry trade forecasts.
Cattle prices for 2018 are lowered slightly on second-quarter price data; no changes are made to outlying quarters. Hog prices are raised for the second quarter of 2018 on current price strength, but no changes are made to the outlying quarters. Second-quarter broiler prices are lowered for 2018; no changes are made to outlying quarters. Turkey prices are increased fractionally for 2018, reflecting a higher second-quarter forecast. Egg prices for 2018 are lowered on recent price data. For 2019, hog prices are lowered on weaker expected demand, but no changes are made to cattle, poultry, and egg price forecasts for 2019.
The milk production forecast for 2018 is reduced from last month on slightly lower cow numbers and slower expected growth in milk per cow. No change is made to the annual cow herd for 2019, but the milk production forecast for 2019 is lowered from last month on continued slow growth in milk per cow.
For 2018, fat basis exports are raised from the previous month as second-quarter exports are strong and continued strength in sales of a number of fat-containing products will largely mitigate the impacts of Mexico’s tariffs on U.S. cheese. For 2019, the fat basis export forecast is lowered. Skim-solids basis export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are raised from the previous month on robust demand for non-fat dry milk and lactose thus far in 2018, and this strength is expected to carry into 2019. Fat basis imports for 2018 and 2019 are raised on higher imports of butterfat products, while skim-solids basis import forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced on lower imports of milk proteins and a number of other dairy products.
The 2018 cheese price is unchanged at the midpoint of the range, but is raised for 2019. The 2018 butter price forecast is raised, but is reduced slightly for 2019. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price forecasts are raised for both 2018 and 2019 on strong demand and a reduced production forecast. For 2018, the Class III price is raised on the stronger whey price. The Class IV price forecasts reflects higher butter and NDM prices. For 2019, both Class III and Class IV prices are raised. The all milk price is forecast higher at $16.60 to $17.00 per cwt for 2018 and is increased to $16.70 to $17.70 per cwt for 2019.
The most significant revision to this month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates is a 500,000-bale increase in 2017/18 exports, to 16.0 million bales, due to above-average late-season shipments. U.S. ending stocks are now forecast at 4.2 million bales in 2017/18, and 4.7 million bales in 2018/19, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 25 percent. The projected range of the marketing-year-average farm price is raised 5 cents at each end to 60-80 cents per pound.
The 2018/19 world projections include lower production for China, Pakistan, and Australia offset in part for higher production for Brazil. World production is nearly 800,000 bales lower this month, while 2018/19 consumption is reduced only 85,000 bales, as a 225,000-bale reduction for South Korea is largely offset by increases for Uzbekistan and Vietnam. World beginning stocks for 2018/19 are unchanged from a month earlier, but ending stocks are 725,000 bales lower. At 83.0 million bales, 2018/19 world ending stocks are projected 5.2 million bales lower than a year earlier, but stocks outside of China are expected to rise for the third consecutive year.