In their September 12 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and September Crop Production reports, USDA confirmed the old adage ‘big crops get bigger.’ USDA projects corn production to be 14.827 billion bushels, up 241 million bushels from last month on an increased national average yield forecast of 181.3 bushels per acre.
“Looking at corn and soybeans, I guess big crops do get bigger,” says AgriTalk host Chip Flory. “When it works altogether they add about 250 million bushels to the crop.”
If realized, the crop would be the second highest on record. Among the major producing states, yields are forecast to be record high in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, and South Dakota, according to USDA.
“They added about 125 million bushels total demand and that leaves carryover 1.774 million bushels,” Flory explains. “That's not a big enough increase in the carryover estimate on corn to really change the story there. Corn’s still got a good story to tell, the biggest problem for corn right now is what's going on with the bean crop and the bean market.”
USDA projects soybean production to be a record 4,693 million bushels, up 107 million on a record yield forecast of 52.8 bushels per acre. Unchanged exports and increasing crush leaves ending stocks projected to be 845 million bushels, up 60 million from last month.
“We've seen this coming for quite a while,” Flory says. “I still think that there’s room to go to the upside on the demand side for soybeans. But right now, we're dealing with that 845 million carry that's going to be a wet blanket over the market all the way through harvest.”
Corn fell 12 cents, soybeans gained 5 cents and wheat lost 8 cents immediately following the report’s release.