An Unpopular (But Likely) Forecast

Ten-day temperature forecast ( European Forecast Model )

Farmers in the Midwest, namely Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana, can expect more hot, dry weather in the coming weeks. This could hit corn at especially critical times, such as pollination and the start of grain fill.

It all depends on what forecast you look at and Michael Clark, at BAMWX, tells Chip Flory on AgriTalk that certain models are just a little too optimistic.

“You look at the GFS (Global Forecast System) over the course of the next seven days and you could argue six inches of rain in Illinois and Indiana,” he says. “It’s crazy. Knowing what I know, and how these things normally work I just don’t think there’s any way you can get six inches of rain.”

Clark tends to lean more toward the European Forecasting model, that calls for more heat and just a touch of rain—maybe just a quarter of an inch.

“One primary reason for that. It's 100 degrees in western Nebraska right now. It's June 5 [and] it's 90 across 91 degrees across all of central Iowa with humidity levels in the upper 20s in mid 30% range. Yeah, it's very dry, and most of the winds are Southwest at 10 to 25 miles per hour. So, you are dry [and getting] dryer,” Clark says.

Precipitation Map, European Forecast Model
C: European Forecast Model

Certain forecasting tools are calling for cooler temperatures in the coming weeks, but Clark disagrees.

“We have indications that late June and July could just be super hot,” he says. “We really do and so when nothing else is showing it and no one else it talking about it we’re in the hot seat.”