Soybeans Key to Future Prices

USDA dropped a couple bombs on American farmers today in the agency’s Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks reports. These surprises lead to quick reactions from the market.

“Stocks came in higher than anticipated for corn and soybeans, which unto itself give the market a bearish reaction,” says Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete. “But that was trumped by the prospective planting intentions.”

Corn and soybean planting intentions dropped to below what they were a year ago. Corn dropped 2% from 2017 and soybeans dropped a single percent. Picking up the slack, wheat jumped 3% over this past year and cotton soared 7% higher.

“The soybean number is shockingly below what they were last year and the trade, for now based on price reaction, believes that number,” Grete says. “We’ll see if they believe it moving forward which will be the key to spring price reaction in the corn and soybean markets.”

Prospective planting acreage estimates are as follows:

  • Corn-88 million acres
  • Soybeans-89 million acres
  • All Wheat-47.3 million acres
  • All cotton 13.5 million acres
  • Sorghum-5.9 million acres

Grain Stock report key findings:

  • Corn stocks up 3% from March 2017
  • Soybean stocks up 21%
  • All wheat stocks down 10%
  • Grain sorghum down 23%