Reports Indicate A Bear Market

Faced with significant downward pressure, corn and soybeans are looking a bear market after today’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. Soybeans will take the brunt of the heat and corn is projected for record production this year.

As of market close on Friday, August 10, September corn was down 11.4 cents and September soybeans was down 41.6 cents. Follow the markets here.

“We now turn the tables, from a technical perspective, on bulls which had gained a little momentum and recovery from their July low,” says Brian Grete, Pro Farmer editor. 

Soybean yields are projected to be 2.5 bu. higher than 2017 at 51.6 bu. per acre national average. The nation’s total production is forecasted to reach 4.59 billion bu., 4% higher than last year, on 88.9 million acres.

“Historical numbers tell us over the past 20 years there’s about a two-thirds chance that the soybean crop will rise from USDA’s initial estimate here in August,” Grete says.

While corn is in a slightly better position than soybeans, it’s still going to be a monster crop.

“USDA looks for the 3rd biggest corn crop on record and biggest yield on record,” Grete says. “But there’s only a 50/50 chance over the past 20 years that the yield will either increase or decrease from August [so] it’s a crapshoot on that one.” 

Corn production across the U.S. is forecasted at 14.6 billion bu., down less than 1% over last year on 81.8 million acres to be harvested for grain. USDA projects corn yields will average 178.4 bu. per acre across the nation.

“We’ll see on the Pro Farmer crop tour August 20 through 23 if the yields are out there to support what USDA came up with,” Grete adds.

All wheat is expected to hit 47.4 bu. per acre, slightly down from last month, national average for a total of 1.88 billion bu. Total production is projected to be down 1% from the July forecast, but up 8% from 2017.

All cotton is set to produce 19.2 million 480-pount bales, down 8% from this past year. USDA expects yield to average 911 pounds per acre, up six pounds from last year on 10.1 million acres.