"It's Wet and Getting Wetter"

Start of Business 050619
usda-planter-planting ( Jo Windmann / Farm Journal )

USDA rolling out the latest crop progress numbers as another system brings rain to the middle of the country this week. It says 23 percent of corn is now planted. Usually, planting is nearing the halfway mark.  

Analysts Steve Georgy of Allendale and Mike North of Commodity Risk Management Group told AgDay's Clinton Griffiths the trade is still watching soil moisture here for the first couple of weeks of May. 

"It's wet and getting wetter," says North.  "The markets are growing concerned about that and it's given us a little bit of an uptick in corn as we enter the month of May." 

While corn may benefit from fewer acres and reduced yields, soybeans are feeling the pressure.

"Some more downside pressure on beans kind of sets the stage and the tone as we go forward," says North. "Now the question will be can we continue those trends into the coming week."

USDA also rolling out new world supply and demand numbers later this week.

"You're going to probably end up kicking the can here on new crop numbers," says Georgy. "I think some of the focus we need to look at is old crop."

Georgy says the U.S. has been missing export sales numbers and that means there may need to be some adjustments higher on carryout in the future. 

"To say that the crop is going to get smaller is very hard to do," says Georgy.  "I think the bigger surprises could come if we continue to have weather problems." 

To hear more of this conversation including clues for market movement, watch the full interview in the video above.