Heads Up: Analyst Says There’s a Weather Premium Coming for Soybeans

Soybean Markets 062220

The market was able to bounce back from losses after the reopening after USDA announced Tuesday morning private exporters sold 132,000 metric tons to China for new crop delivery.

Ted Seifried, vice president and chief market strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge, believes there’s a weather premium coming into the soybean market. He thinks it might stick around for roughly a month. 

“I think we’re going to be at the edge of our seat with the soybean market, basically until we get to August and we really know what pod set looks like,” Seifried says.   

In his 30-day outlook for temperatures and precipitation, AgDay meteorologist Mike Hoffman forecasts above-normal temperatures for the Northeast and from Iowa and Missouri westward. Temperatures for the rest of the U.S. are expected to be close to normal.   

Hoffman anticipates the Southeast will receive above normal precipitation and most of the Corn Belt will see fairly normal rainfall amounts. 

Weather market or not, China has been buying soybeans in June. 

Officials continue to indicate big purchases from China are coming, but traders are increasingly anxious China will keep its purchases under the reporting threshold.   

When it comes to new crop sales, Seifried says U.S. farmers have a strong start. 

“When we talk about next year’s export sales, this time last year, we had 1.8 million metric tons on the books for sales,” he says. “At this point, we are sitting at about 4.2-million-metric-ton sale number for next year for new crop.” 

Watch more of the analysis here.