As the growing season marches on, many are questioning USDA’s acreage number. Pete Meyer of S&P Global Platts, who is also a Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour scout, says the acreage is here to stay. The variable is how finishing time will impact yield and harvested acres.
“People can try to make a story that acreage is overestimated, but the reality is we’re sitting at the table and these are the cards we’ve been dealt. I don’t think we’re going to see much change in the acreage as time goes on here,” he told AgDay host Clinton Griffiths. “So, we’re going to have to deal with the acres we have at the moment.”
What could change between now and harvest? Yield and harvested acres.
“Companywide, our harvested acres are about 90.5%,” Meyer said. “That’s lower than where USDA is. They’re at 91%.”
While Meyer is concerned 90.5% might be a little bit high, he thinks going much lower than 90% is probably unlikely.
“I think between 90-90.5% is probably a fair number,” he said adding it depends on if the unprecedently-immature crops actually make it to the finish line before a damaging frost.
Yield is riding on the same factor.
“The yield looks ok,” he said after seeing crops in Ohio and Indiana. “It’s in line with what everybody was thinking, but we have a long way to go before combines roll. It’s going to be a busy Thanksgiving for a lot of farmers.”
Find complete Crop Tour route reports, market analysis and historical comparisons at ProFarmer.com.
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