Analyst on Wheat Market Moves: Watch Australia

Talking Wheat Markets 072919

The annual spring wheat tour just wrapped up in the Northern Plains with the Wheat Quality Council Wheat Tour. The Council reports it expects an average spring wheat yield of 43.1 bushels per acre.

Despite the lower number, analysts say the crop looks better than other row crops in the region. In USDA’s Crop Progress report, the department says 97 percent of the spring wheat forecast has headed, just one point behind the 5-year-average. USDA says 76 percent of the spring wheat crop is rated good to excellent. The year prior was at 78 percent.

“It’s not in the bin yet, we realize that but the crop conditions have been good,” said Brian Basting with Advanced Trading. “Right now, we’ve got a really good spring wheat crop coming on in the Northern Plains and the markets are reflecting that.”

There are reports countries such as Australia and Russia may have a lower wheat crop than usual.

“The areas we are watching in this order would be Australia,” said Basting. “The key time period is August and September for Australia. They remain quite dry. It feels the crop is getting smaller in Russia and perhaps, the crop is getting smaller in the European Union.”

Basting says he doesn’t want to give the impression these crops are a disaster in Russia and Europe.

“They are good crops. They are just not as big as we thought earlier,” said Basting.

The Wheat Quality Tour toured North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota.