China has already restarted some purchases. In November, China's imports of soybeans surged to a 20 month high following the announcement of a trade deal.
Soybean imports more than doubled the October pace and the highest since March of 2018 when trade tensions were starting to ratchet up.
So far, China's total commitments this marketing year are at 10.5 million tons. A year ago, it was only 2 million tons.
“There’s a lot of optimism and opportunity I think for the market to really move,” said John Payne, author of This Week in Grains and Oilseeds and market strategist with Daniels Trading. “Now, we are just looking for some follow-through and concrete evidence things are actually going to change [when it comes to a trade agreement].”
Payne Mexico has made two big purchases in the last two weeks. He says one is a big corn purchase while another is wheat.
“The Chinese have obviously been in the soybean markets,” said Payne. “We don’t think they will start [physically] buying until February.”
Click on the link to hear his analysis with Farm Journal Editor and AgDay Host Clinton Griffiths.