2019 Soybean Acreage Decline Likely from Fringe States

2018 Data ( Ag Economics Insights )

Taking a cue from difficult trade situations, depressed prices and record stocks, soybean acres could decline this coming year. The shift away from soybeans will likely come from the just states historically among the highest in production.

“At present it is likely that soybean acreage will decline in the U.S.,” said Brent Gloy, economist with Ag Economic Insights in a recent report. “A fair amount of acreage adjustment will likely come from the Corn Belt states.”

In recent years, soybean acres have increased outside of the Corn Belt. Nine states planted in excess of five million acres of soybeans in 2018, according to Gloy. In addition to the top production states, nine more states planted more than one million acres of soybeans. Those 18 states accounted for 95% of soybeans planted in the U.S.

In more recent history, Kansas, Missouri and North Dakota have showcased some of the biggest acreage shifts—to the tune of one million or more in a single year. However, Missouri is the only state to have ever shown a more than one million acre decrease in a single year, 2015.

 

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“One of the things noticeable about this map is that the states with larger average changes were generally outside of the traditional Corn Belt,” Gloy said. “For instance, North Dakota, Missouri and Kansas had the largest average change. North Dakota’s average change was 487,000 acres.”

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