New tool for evaluating weather forecast uncertainty

decrease font size  Resize text   increase font size       Printer-friendly version of this article Printer-friendly version of this article

EarthRisk Technologies, a pioneer in the research, analysis and visualization of extreme temperatures and weather patterns, released a new graphical tool for quantifying the likelihood of extreme temperature events. EarthRisk's newest product, ForecastRisk, combines the output of its innovative TempRisk Forecast Model with conventional ensemble output from numerical weather prediction models. Specifically, ForecastRisk displays the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) in the same anomaly space with HeatRisk and ColdRisk Scores.

Available for all U.S. regions, ForecastRisk captures the inherent uncertainty associated with weather forecasts by showing the spread in numerical ensemble members in comparison with TempRisk's statistical output.

"Our customers need to make informed decisions about the weather very quickly. We specifically developed ForecastRisk to mirror how our users think about and intuitively compare the various data models available to them," says EarthRisk CEO John Plavan. "Now we've put that data into a single graphical representation, making the process of assessing weather forecast uncertainty much faster, more concrete and repeatable."

By combining TempRisk forecast data and multi-model ensemble forecasts in an insightful way, ForecastRisk offers weather analysts and commodity traders an at-a-glance tool for quickly and easily quantifying model consensus, directional risk and confidence.

"Our beta users tell us that ForecastRisk is literally a game-changer for them," adds Plavan. "The new visualization converts a complex thought process into an instantly digestible format that supports better decisions."

"Commodities trading requires efficient display of quantitative data for fast uptake during key decision points within the trading day," says Adam O'Shay, president and head of trading at Leeward Pointe Capital. "ForecastRisk aggregates vital demand-level data-pieces into an easily digestible format and is a unique decision-analytic that I use daily and is something I cannot find elsewhere in the commodities space."

ForecastRisk is included with Pro and Standard TempRisk subscriptions and is also available as a stand-alone product. It is emailed every business day in a region-specific PDF format.

Buyers Guide

Doyle Equipment Manufacturing Co.
Doyle Equipment Manufacturing prides themselves as being “The King of the Rotary’s” with their Direct Drive Rotary Blend Systems. With numerous setup possibilities and sizes, ranging from a  more...
A.J. Sackett Sons & Company
Sackett Blend Towers feature the H.I.M, High Intensity Mixer, the next generation of blending and coating technology which supports Precision Fertilizer Blending®. Its unique design allows  more...
R&R Manufacturing Inc.
The R&R Minuteman Blend System is the original proven performer. Fast, precise blending with a compact foot print. Significantly lower horsepower requirement. Low inload height with large  more...
Junge Control Inc.
Junge Control Inc. creates state-of-the-art product blending and measuring solutions that allow you to totally maximize operating efficiency with amazing accuracy and repeatability, superior  more...
Yargus Manufacturing
The flagship blending system for the Layco product line is the fully automated Layco DW System™. The advanced technology of the Layco DW (Declining Weight) system results in a blending  more...
Yargus Manufacturing
The LAYCOTE™ Automated Coating System provides a new level of coating accuracy for a stand-alone coating system or for coating (impregnating) in an automated blending system. The unique  more...
John Deere
The DN345 Drawn Dry Spreader can carry more than 12 tons of fertilizer and 17.5 tons of lime. Designed to operate at field speeds up to 20 MPH with full loads and the G4 spreader uniformly  more...
Force Unlimited
The Pro-Force is a multi-purpose spreader with a wider apron and steeper sides. Our Pro-Force has the most aggressive 30” spinner on the market, and is capable of spreading higher rates of  more...
BBI Spreaders
MagnaSpread 2 & MagnaSpread 3 — With BBI’s patented multi-bin technology, these spreaders operate multiple hoppers guided by independent, variable-rate technology. These models are built on  more...

Comments (0) Leave a comment 

e-Mail (required)


characters left

Pacesetter Grain Hopper

The Pacesetter Gain Hopper features original and innovative ideas like the patented RollerTrap™, the industry’s easiest to open and maintain trap ... Read More

View all Products in this segment

View All Buyers Guides

Feedback Form
Feedback Form