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Market Commentary

Morning Comments 05/21


The Crop Progress seemed to hold divergent implications for the wheat markets Monday afternoon. It showed the winter wheat crop deteriorated slightly from the week prior, whereas spring wheat plantings accelerated rather dramatically. Unfortunately for bullish interests, the negative implications of the speeding spring wheat results easily offset support for the winter wheat market. July CBOT wheat futures dropped 9.5 cents to $6.7575/bushel in early Tuesday morning action, while July KCBT wheat rallied tumbled 10.0 cents to $7.35, while July MGE futures sank 8.75 cents to $8.025.
Market Info

Winter survival of poorly developed wheat

Jim Shroyer and Jeff Whitworth, Kansas State University  |   December 12, 2012
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Conditions remain very dry conditions in many areas of Kansas this year. Both the topsoil and subsoil are very dry. Where this is the case, wheat development has typically been poor. Will this make some wheat fields more susceptible to winter die-off or weaker than usual?

Factors to consider

The following are some of the factors to consider when evaluating the outlook for winter survival of wheat:

* How well has the wheat cold hardened?

When temperatures through fall and early winter gradually get colder, that helps wheat plants develop good winterhardiness. When temperatures remain unusually warm late into the fall (which can lead to excessive vegetative growth) then suddenly drop into the low teens, plants are less likely to have had time to cold harden properly and will be more susceptible to winterkill. This fall, temperatures have fallen off gradually. As a result, the wheat should be adequately cold hardened in most cases.

* How well developed is the root system?

Good top growth of wheat doesn’t necessarily indicate good root development. Poor root development is a concern where conditions have been dry. Where wheat plants have a good crown root system and two or more tillers, they will tolerate the cold better. If plants are poorly developed going into winter, with very few secondary roots and no tillers, they will be more susceptible to winterkill or desiccation, especially when soils remain dry. Poor development of secondary roots may not be readily apparent unless the plants are pulled up and examined. If plants are poorly developed, it may be due to dry soils, poor seed-to-soil contact, very low pH, insect damage, or other causes.

* How cold is the soil at the crown level?

This depends on snow cover and moisture levels in the soil. Winterkill is possible if soil temperatures at the crown level (about one inch deep) fall into the single digits. If there is at least an inch of snow on the ground, the wheat will be protected and soil temperatures will usually remain above the critical level. Also, if the soil has good moisture, it’s possible that soil temperatures at the crown level may not reach the critical level even in the absence of snow cover. But if the soil is dry and there is no snow cover, there may be the potential for winterkill, especially on exposed slopes or terrace tops, depending on the condition of the plants.

* Is the crown well protected by soil?

If wheat is planted at the correct depth, about 1.5 to 2 inches deep, and in good contact with the soil, the crown should be well protected by the soil from the effects of cold temperatures. If the wheat seed was planted too shallowly, then the crown will have developed too close to the soil surface and will be more susceptible to winterkill. Also, if the seed was planted into loose soil or into heavy surface residue, the crown could be more exposed and could be susceptible to cold temperatures and desiccation.

* Is there any insect or disease damage to the plants?

Plants may die during the winter not from winterkill, but from the direct effects of a fall infestation of Hessian fly. Many people are familiar with the lodging that Hessian fly can cause to wheat in the spring, but fewer recognize the damage that can be caused by fall infestations of Hessian fly. Wheat infested in the fall often remains green until the winter when the infested tillers gradually die. Depending on the stage of wheat when the larvae begin their feeding, individual tillers or whole plants can die. If the infestation occurs before multiple tillers are well established then whole plants can die. If the plants have multiple tillers before the plants are infested then often only individual tillers that are infested by the fly larvae will die.

The key to being able to confirm that the Hessian fly is the cause of the dead tillers is to carefully inspect the dead plants or tillers for Hessian fly larvae or pupae. This can be done by carefully removing the plant from the soil and pulling back the leaf material to expose the base of the plant. By late winter all of the larvae should have pupated and thus the pupae should be easily detected as elongated brown structures pressed against the base of the plant. The pupae are fairly resilient and will remain at the base of the plant well into the spring.

Damage from winter grain mites, brown wheat mites, fall armyworm, aphids, and crown and root rot diseases can also weaken wheat plants and make them somewhat more susceptible to injury from cold weather stress or desiccation.

Symptoms of winter survival problems

If plants are killed outright by cold temperatures, they won’t green up next spring. If they are only damaged, it might take them a while to die. They will green up and then slowly go “backwards” and eventually die. There are enough nutrients in the crown to allow the plants to green up, but the winter injury causes vascular damage so that nutrients that are left cannot move, or root rot diseases move in and kill the plants. Slow death is probably the most common result of winter injury on wheat.

Direct cold injury is not the only source of winter injury. Under dry conditions, wheat plants may suffer from desiccation. This can kill or weaken plants, and is actually a more common problem than direct cold injury.


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