Statistics Canada released revised crop production estimates. Canada’s wheat crop is now estimated at 26.733 million tonnes, up 6% from the 2011 crop at 25.26 million tonnes. Expectations were for a slight increase from the August estimate, but production fell instead. Wheat production increased from the previous estimate in August despite a lower yield. The yield was revised down to 42.1 bushels per acre from 44.0 bushels previously.
The lower yield was partially offset by a 10% increase in harvested acreage to 23.3 million acres. Sharply lower canola production was probably the biggest surprise from the report. Expectations were for production to decline from the August estimate at 15.41 million tonnes to 14.6 million, a 5% decline. However, production is now estimated at only 13.36 million tonnes, 8% below a year ago. The 2011 crop was revised up slightly to 14.49 million tonnes.
Drought, disease, insect damage all contributed to a 17.5% drop in the yield to 28.2 bushels per acre. The damage from a late season wind storm may have further damaged the crop and may not be fully accounted for in the current estimate.
Barley production is estimated at 8.6 million tonnes, up 11% from a year ago. Production is up from a year ago, but 900,000 tonnes below the August estimate and 600,000 tonnes below the average trade estimate. A 16% increase in harvested acreage from 2011 more than offset a 4% cut in yield. Corn production is now projected at 11.58 million tonnes, up 8% from a year ago.