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Market Commentary

Afternoon Comments 06/19


Wheat futures turned decisively higher Wednesday, with weather driven gains being exaggerated by a reduced acreage forecast. Talk that excessive moisture will curtail North Dakota acreage apparently supported prices, especially after a late report from a Memphis-based consultancy pointed in that direction. Forecasts for surprisingly hot, dry weather over the central U.S. later this month likely boosted futures as well. July CBOT wheat leapt 19.5 cents to $7.07/bushel at its Wednesday afternoon settlement, while July KCBT wheat rocketed 20.5 cents higher to $7.3975, and July MGE futures soared 14.5 to $8.135.
Market Info

Kansas winter wheat condition declines

USDA  |   January 30, 2013
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Crop Progress and Condition for the month of January 2013.

Agricultural Summary: Temperature averages for the month of January over most of Kansas were two to five degrees above normal. Rainfall was received in most areas of the State, with all 53 stations recording at least trace amounts of moisture for the month, but none received an inch or more. The lightest amount was in the northwest where Goodland only received 0.12 inch. Great Bend and Salina, in the center of the state, both reported 0.94 inch for the highest precipitation amount.

Temperatures varied widely during the month with a low of -5 degrees at Ulysses to a high of 75 in Elkhart. There were 14.5 days suitable for field work, compared to 16.6 days a year ago. Topsoil moisture supplies as of January 27 were rated 48 percent very short, 37 percent short, and 15 percent adequate, virtually unchanged from the beginning of the month. The Northwest District is still the driest district with 97 percent reported in the short to very short for topsoil moisture.

Field Crop Report: Limited moisture in most areas caused the condition of the winter wheat to decline during January. The condition of the crop was rated 14 percent very poor, 25 percent poor, 41 percent fair, 19 percent good, and 1 percent excellent. Wind damage was rated as 1 percent severe, 5 percent moderate, 13 percent light, and 81 percent with no damage, while freeze damage was rated as 1 percent severe, 4 percent moderate, 11 percent light, and 84 percent with no damage.

Feed Supplies Report: The range and pasture condition was rated 55 percent very poor, 30 percent poor, 13 percent fair, and 2 percent good. Feed grain supplies in Kansas were rated at 22 percent very short, 26 percent short, 51 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus, while hay and forage supplies were rated at 37 percent very short, 37 percent short, 25 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus. The stock water supplies declined to 48 percent very short, 30 percent short, and 22 percent adequate.

Livestock producers continue grazing cattle on crop residue and supplemental feeding. Due to the lack of significant rainfall, many producers are hauling water for livestock and are concerned about pasture conditions and low or dried stock pond levels.

 


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