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Market Commentary

Closing Comment 05/18


Wheat futures closed higher on Friday. Currently weather is the most important factor moving the wheat market. Wheat futures soared as warm, dry weather concerns in the U.S., Russia, and Australia continued to fuel fears of damage to wheat crops. Speculators covered their short positions in the market over weather uncertainty boosting wheat prices higher on the close. CBOT July was 37 1/2 cents higher at $6.95 1/4; KCBT July was 33 cents higher at $7.05; and MGE July was 24 3/4 cents higher at $7.92.
Market Info

Global wheat glut could pressure prices

Colleen Scherer, Managing Editor, Ag Professional  |   January 18, 2012

U.S. wheat growers have reportedly planted the most winter wheat in three years just as the global wheat supply has swelled to the biggest in a decade.

“About 41.02 million acres, an area bigger than Illinois, were sown from September to November, 0.9 percent more than a year earlier,” according to the average of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. “That will add to world inventories set to rise 4 percent to 207.7 million metric tons, the most since 2000, the survey showed. Winter wheat makes up 74 percent of the U.S. crop, and the government gives its first estimate tomorrow,” Bloomberg reported.

World wheat production in 2011/2012 is projected up 2.5 million tons this month to 691.5 million, up 1 percent from the previous record in 2009/2010, according to the Wheat Outlook released from the USDA’s Economic Research Service this week.

Spurring global wheat production has been Russia, which saw a 35 percent increase in wheat in 2011 compared to 2010. In addition, Ukraine increased its output by 31 percent as Canada increased its supply by 9 percent and Australia by 1.5 percent to a record. India harvested its biggest crop ever as well.  

In anticipation of the spring season, the crop condition in most of the Midwest wheat growing states is better than last year. Nearly all Central and Southern Plains states are reporting higher percentages for the good to excellent rating compared to this time last year.

Wheat production is projected to be up in several countries of the Former Soviet Union as well as Brazil. Russia is projected up 0.2 million to 56.2 million for its preliminary crop production data. It is also up 0.8 million tons in Brazil.


 

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