Source: USDA/WASDE


The 2010/11 outlook for U.S. wheat is for larger supplies as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are up 45 percent from 2009/10 and the highest in a decade more than offsetting a forecast 8 percent reduction in this year's crop. Total production is projected at 2,043 million bushels, down 173 million from last year. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 4 percent, but higher yields in Oklahoma, Texas, and a number of the soft red winter wheat states partly offset an 8 percent decline in expected winter wheat harvested area. Spring wheat production is also expected lower as a return to trend yields from last year's record levels lowers production prospects. Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 585 million bushels, down 16 percent from 2009/10, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and state yield trends for 1985-2008. U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected at 3,103 million bushels, up 4 percent from the current year and the largest since 2000/01.


Total U.S. wheat use for 2010/11 is projected up 3 percent with higher expected domestic use and exports. Food use is projected at 940 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from 2009/10 as flour extraction rates are expected to return to historical averages from their high levels during the past 2 years. Feed and residual use is projected at 190 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the 2009/10 projection as the larger carryin, particularly for soft red winter wheat, raises feed use prospects. Exports are projected at 900 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from the current year as large, early season supplies and lower prices improve U.S. competitiveness. Despite higher expected use, U.S. ending stocks are projected at nearly 1 billion bushels and the highest since 1987/88. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel, compared with the 2009/10 projection of $4.90 per bushel.


Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 2 percent higher with larger year-to-year beginning stocks more than offsetting lower expected production. Global 2010/11 wheat production is projected at 672.2 million tons, down 1 percent from 2009/10 and the third largest production on record if realized. Larger projected production in EU-27, South America, and the Middle East is more than offset by expected declines in FSU-12, North Africa, South Asia, China, Canada, and Australia.


Global wheat trade is expected to rise slightly for 2010/11 with world exports up 2 percent from 2009/10 at 129.2 million tons. Higher year-to-year exports for Argentina and EU-27 more than offset lower exports for Ukraine, Australia, and Canada. Export prospects for Russia are unchanged for 2010/11 as larger Middle East crops and rising domestic wheat feeding limit export expansion for Russian wheat. Global wheat consumption is projected up 2 percent for 010/11 with larger global supplies supporting growth in demand.


World wheat feeding is projected 3 percent higher with much of the year-to-year increase from rising feeding in FSU-12. Global stocks are projected at 198.1 million tons, up 4.7 million from 2009/10; however, China stocks are projected up 8.3 million tons leaving stocks in the rest of the world down from the current year projection.