Domestic wheat situation: 2012-13 Supplies

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Supplies for 2012/13 are 168 million bushels above 2011/12. Higher production (+270 million bushels) and imports (+18 million bushels) more than offset lower beginning stocks (-119 million bushels) year to year.

Projected supplies of hard red winter (HRW), hard red spring (HRS), and durum are up year to year, mostly because of higher production. HRW production is up 224 million bushels year to year, with higher planted area and smaller abandonment rate.

Yields are also higher year to year because of the recovery from the severe drought on the Central and Southern Plains the previous year. HRS and durum production are up 107 million bushels and 32 million bushels, respectively, from a year ago with larger harvested areas and higher yields. Production for these two classes of wheat recovered from the previous year when excessive moisture and cool temperatures in the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings.

Projected supplies of soft red winter (SRW) and white are down from 2011/12. Both classes had lower production for 2012/13, down 38 million bushels and 55 million bushels, respectively, on the year. Production is down for both classes because of smaller harvested area and lower yields. SRW planted area was down because a late row crop harvest delayed plantings in the Corn Belt and Northeast.

All-wheat 2012 production is estimated at 2,269 million bushels, unchanged from October, but up 270 million bushels from 2011. The all-wheat harvested area is estimated at 49.0 million acres, unchanged from October, but up 3.3 million acres from last year. The U.S. all-wheat estimated yield is 46.3 bushels per acre for 2012, equaling the record 46.3 bushels for 2010. The yield is unchanged from October, but up 2.6 bushels from the previous year.

Projected total 2012/13 carryin stocks of 743 million bushels are unchanged from October, but down 119 million bushels from 2011/12. Carryin stocks are down year to year for all classes except SRW. Projected all-wheat imports for 2012/13 at 130 million bushels are unchanged from October, but 9 million bushels were shifted this month from SRW to HRW based on the pace to date.

Source: Wheat Outlook


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