World wheat trade up, U.S. exports down
This year, lack of competition from Russia and Ukraine allowed European (and especially eastern European) wheat exporters to expand their deliveries to the traditional Russian and Ukrainian importers of North Africa and the Middle East. This wheat export e xpansion by the EU-27 is being matched by high corn imports, the largest in 10 years. Brazilian wheat exports are projected up 0. 5 million tons this month to 1.7 million tons. Since eliminating tariff rate quotas for wheat exports through July 2013, Brazil has been exporting feed-quality wheat at a higher-than-expected pace.
Ukraine’s export prospects are up 0.3 million tons this month to 6.5 million. Based on the pace of shipments in recent months, exports are projected higher this month also for Croatia, Iran (a particular sale of wheat to Syria), Morocco, and Serbia. Faced with increased competition from EU- 27 and India, and a relatively strong currency, U.S. wheat exports are reduced 0.5 million tons to 28.5 million for the international July-June trade year, which is still 0.4 million tons higher than last year’s exports.
Despite improved shipments, outstanding wheat sales are currently on par with last year.
As we enter the last quarter of the marketing year, and approach the last quarter of the trade year, it becomes in creasingly difficult to sustain the pace of shipments necessary to meet last month’s U.S. export projection. From July 2012 through January 2013, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that exports of wheat reached 13.6 million tons, down from 15.2 a year earlier.
However, grain inspections for February 2013 were 2.5 million tons, up 33 percent compared with a year ago. Outstanding export sales as of February 28, 2013 are at 5.4 million tons, almost the same as last year at this time. For the June-May 2012/13 local marketing year, U.S. wheat exports are projected down 25 million bushels to 1,025 million.
Source: Wheat Outlook