The world wheat trade estimate for 2010/11 (July-June) is increased slightly this month by 0.4 million tons, to 131.7 million. Revised information and final numbers from statistical agencies for the July/June international trade year called for export increases of 0.1 million tons each for Argentina, EU-27, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Smaller changes for 2010/11 exports are also made for a number of countries.
Imports are up 0.2 million tons to 10.6 million for Egypt, for Nigeria by 0.14 million tons to 4.0 million, and for Algeria and Tunisia by 0.1 million tons each. Imports are reduced for Morocco, down 0.2 million tons, and for Kenya and Syria by 0.1 million tons each. Smaller changes are made for a number of other countries.
World trade projected this month for the 2011/12 (July-June) international trade year is up 0.6 million tons to 132.3 million. Driven by production changes and shifts in competitiveness, export projections for several countries are adjusted this month. A sharp increase in wheat supplies for Canada this month─durum wheat in particular, which is expected to be in very short supply this year─makes that country a formidable U.S. competitor. Canadian exports are projected up 2.0 million tons this month to 17.0 million.
EU-27 export prospects are up 1.0 million tons to 16.0 million as supplies are ample. Exports are also slightly up for Sri Lanka. Partly offsetting is a decrease in Turkish wheat export prospects, down 0.5 million tons to 3.5 million. While Turkish wheat exports are primarily flour and products, its decreased durum wheat production in 2011/12 will present a challenge to pasta producers and affect the export potential for the country’s wheat products.
There are very few changes in 2011/12 imports this month. U.S. trade year imports are up 0.2 million tons to 2.9 million, on the expectation of larger durum and spring wheat imports from Canada. Another change is for Uzbekistan, up 0.1 million tons to 1.6 million, balancing a lower projected crop.
Source: USDA-ERS Wheat Outlook (9/14/2011)