World wheat trade for 2012/2013 projected down slightly

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World wheat trade for the international July-June year 2012/13 is projected to be down slightly this month by 0.3 million tons to 140.2 million. EU-27 and Indian exports are both up 0.5 million tons, to 18.5 and 8.5 million, respectively, while exports for the United States, Kazakhstan, and Brazil are forecast lower. The EU-27 is expected to export more wheat freed up from animal feeding, while replacing it by importing additional quantities of corn.

India continues to issue tenders from the overloaded government stocks ahead of the upcoming wheat harvest and to export wheat at a fast pace; India has become a prominent player in world wheat exports this year. Lower supplies and the pace of Kazakhstan and Brazilian wheat exports, on the other hand, support lower export projections, down 0.5 and 0.3 million tons to 6.5 and 1.2 million, respectively.

Projected wheat imports for 2012/13 are little changed this month. For South Korea, wheat imports are expected to increase 0.6 million tons to 5.0 million, due to the pace of confirmed purchases mainly from India, which is currently the cheapest source of feed-quality wheat.

Imports are also up 0.3 million tons for Iran based on purchases from the United States, Russia, and Germany. At the same time, projected wheat imports are reduced 0.5 million tons for Morocco, as favorable wheat harvest prospects for the next year are expected to dampen imports. With Russia and Ukraine having already exported most of their wheat, it is becoming increasingly hard to find readily available supplies of feed wheat, which slows the purchases of a number of feed wheat importers. For this reason, projected imports are down 0.3 million tons for Saudi Arabia, and 0.2 million tons for both Israel and Vietnam.

U.S. exports projected for the 2012/13 June-May marketing year are unchanged this month at 1,050 million bushels (28.6 million tons). However, for the July-June international trade year, U.S. exports are projected down 0.5 million tons to 29.0 million as wheat exports for the month of June 2013 are expected lower. Higher projected wheat feeding in the United States is expected to boost demand for SRW wheat leaving lesser amounts available for exports, while expected availability of HRW wheat for export is also declining with worsening production prospects because of persistent dryness in the Southern and Central Plains.

For July through December 2012, U.S. Census data indicate exports of about 11.5 million tons, down 1.8 million from the previous year. Grain inspections for January 2013 were higher by 0.14 million tons compared with last year. Outstanding export sales as of January 31, 2013 are up 0.5 million tons compared with last year at this time.

The pace of shipments in the final months of 2012/13 are expected to be stronger than in the same months last year.

Source: Wheat Outlook

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