World wheat trade for 2012/13 raised
World wheat trade in 2012/13 for the July-June marketing year is projected up 1.5 million tons to 140.3 million tons this month. Projected exports for 2012/13 are increased this month by 0.5 million tons for each of the following countries: Australia, EU-27, India, and Paraguay.
Increased supplies and lower consumption expectations strengthen Australian wheat exports prospects that are projected at 19.5 million tons.
An exceptionally high pace of corn import licenses in the EU-27 lead to higher projected corn imports this month, and additional corn is expected to replace wheat in animal feeding.
With additional quantities of wheat available for export, EU-27 wheat exports are projected at 18.0 million tons. India has been exporting at a faster pace than expected earlier, boosting the 2012/13 export forecast to 7.5 million. The Government of India has announced additional exports from its ample stocks, and growing conditions for the next crop are good.
In Paraguay, monthly wheat exports–mainly to Brazil– tripled in October and November, boosting the country’s wheat exports for both the local 2011/12 marketing year that ended in November, and the 2012/13 international July-June trade year. Wheat exports for the 2011/12 local year and 2012/13 trade year are up in Argentina and Uruguay by 0.2 and 0.1 million tons, respectively, reflecting higher than expected sales in the last several months.
Exports are also projected up 0.1 million tons, each, for Croatia, Morocco, Serbia, and South Africa, based on the pace of shipments. An even smaller upward change is made for Moldova. Wheat exports are projected down 0.2 million tons to 3.3 million for Turkey, on expectation of lower wheat flour exports to Indonesia, which is shifting its buying more toward wheat grain (currently from India) and processing it domestically.
Projected 2012/13 wheat imports are up 0.5 million tons, each, for Brazil, Iran, Russia, and China. In Brazil, the pace of imports is high, reflecting lower crop prospects, and wheat is coming mainly from Argentina.
Iran is importing at a high pace form Russia, Australia, EU-27, Switzerland, Kazakhstan, and even Uzbekistan, and large deliveries are expected in December. Russia is expected to import more wheat into its drought-hit Siberian district that borders Kazakhstan, a traditional supplier of wheat to Russia. China is importing wheat at a higher pace than last year from Australia, but also from Canada and the United States.
The Chinese import high-quality wheat mainly for blending purposes, as the quality of domestic wheat is generally low. Imports are projected 0.5 million tons lower for Turkey to 3.5 million, as imports from Russia and Ukraine are expected to wind down in the second half of the year.