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While global wheat supplies are basically unchanged this month (higher by less than 0.1 million tons), world wheat production in 2012/13 is forecast down 0.7 million tons at 653.6 million.

In Kazakhstan, the government statistical office released final harvest results that indicate lower-than-expected harvested area and a 0.7-million-ton reduction in wheat output, lowering the harvest to 9.8 million.

Brazilian 2012/13 wheat production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 4.3 million following disappointing final harvest reports from Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest wheat-producing State in Brazil, where frost and hail reportedly affected yields more than expected.

Partly offsetting are upward revisions for wheat production in Ukraine for both the current and previous year (up 0.3 and 0.2 million tons for 2012/13 and 2011/12, respectively) and in Belarus, up 0.1 million tons. Small adjustments are made for Mexico (where the harvest was completed in June 2012), South Africa, and South Korea. Series revisions resulting in production changes are made for a number of prior years for Paraguay and Moldova.

The small reduction in world wheat output is offset by a 0.8-million-ton increase in global beginning stocks, due to a revision of the wheat food consumption series for South Korea for the last 3 years, the already mentioned revisions for Paraguay and Moldova, and a reduction of 2011/12 feed use in Israel.

Slight changes are projected for foreign wheat use for 2012/13, with a reduction of less than a million tons for both food use and wheat feeding. Wheat feeding in the EU-27 is reduced 0.5 million tons to 52.0 million this month, as the region is expected to feed more corn coming from Brazil, while exporting additional wheat.

Projected feed use is also decreased 0.3 million tons to 0.1 million for Saudi Arabia, as that country returns to its historical pattern of higher barley and marginal wheat feeding, after last year’s high feed wheat availability and relatively low prices caused a spike in wheat feeding.

Wheat feeding is trimmed for Vietnam and Israel as a result of lower imports. Partly offsetting this reduction is projected higher wheat feeding in Korea, up 0.6 million tons on account of a rebound in its pork sector, which had been badly hurt by a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in 2010-11.

Lower (0.2 million tons) feeding in Kazakhstan is fully offset by an increase in Ukraine, both reflecting adjustments in wheat output.

A small wheat feed use adjustment is made for Paraguay following the production series revision. With foreign wheat supplies slightly up and wheat consumption down a little, foreign wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.8 million tons higher this month to 157.9 million. World ending stocks are practically unchanged this month at 176.7 million tons, with a small reduction in U.S. stocks.

Projected ending stocks are up 0.5 million tons to 3.9 million in Iran (higher imports) and 0.4 million tons in South Korea (larger supplies partly offset by higher consumption). Stocks are also up in Ukraine (0.3 million tons), Belarus (0.1 million tons), and slightly up in Kazakhstan, Moldova, and Paraguay. Partly offsetting are reductions in ending stocks for Morocco (down 0.5 million tons on lower projected imports), and very small reductions in stocks for Mexico, South Africa, and Vietnam.

Source: Wheat Outlook 

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