The world wheat production forecast for 2012/13 declined 4.1 million tons, driven by a major reduction for Russia. With reduced supplies, prospects for world wheat use are lower and ending stocks are projected slightly down.
The 2012/13 U.S. wheat balance sheet is unchanged this month; however, small by-class adjustments are made to projected exports and stocks. Projected exports for hard red winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels with hard red spring and white wheat exports raised 15 million bushels and 10 million bushels, respectively.
Corresponding changes are made to projected ending stocks for these three classes. The projected range for the 2012/13 seasonaverage farm price is lowered to $7.50 to $8.70 per bushel compared with $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel last month. Prices reported for the summer months, when producers typically market nearly half the crop, have remained well below cash bids and futures prices, suggesting substantial forward pricing by producers earlier in the year.