World wheat ending stocks prospects up 3%

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World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected to reach 208.5 million tons, up 5.9 million this month, 8.8 million higher on the year, and the highest since 1999/2000. The projected stocks-to-use ratio is up almost a point this month, climbing above the 30-percent threshold to 30.7 percent.

Increased 2011/12 wheat production prospects are boosting ending stocks this month for Argentina, up 1.9 million tons to 3.2 million; for Canada, up 1.1 million tons to 6.1 million; for Australia, up 0.8 million tons to 8.6 million, and by smaller amounts for China and Turkey. Stocks are also up in Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 5.4 million, as higher wheat feeding only partly offsets a reduction in exports.

In Korea, ending stocks are up 0.2 million tons as higher feeding only partly offsets increased imports. In Belarus and South Africa, ending stocks are up
0.4 and 0.1 million tons, in each case reflecting higher carry-in. Projected ending stocks are also up for the United States by 1.4 million tons to 23.9 million reflecting lower export prospects. Ending stocks are projected to decrease for Kazakhstan, down 0.5 million tons because of higher feed and residual use; for Morocco, down 0.4 million tons reflecting a production change and a slight upgrade in exports; and for Syria, down 0.2 million tons because a reduction in food use only partly offsets lower wheat imports. Smaller changes for ending stocks are made for several more countries.

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