World wheat ending stocks prospects slightly lower

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With global production down more than projected use, world wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are down 0.5 million tons this month to 176.7 million. This moderate reduction reflects large, though partly offsetting, changes in individual countries. The largest changes in wheat ending stocks are the almost offsetting changes for Russia and Ukraine.

With sharply reduced production prospects, stocks are down 2.0 million tons in Russia, reaching the lowest level since 2007/08. In Ukraine, higher production prospects coupled with a wheat export reduction (see trade section below) results in higher projected stocks, up 2.4 million tons.

Projected stocks for the EU-27 are down 1.5 million tons to 9.4 million, an unusually low level for this region , as a result of lower production prospects, reduced imports and higher exports.

Lower expected Ukrainian exports are expected to result in a reduction in EU-27 wheat imports, as Ukraine is a major wheat export supplier for southern European countries (mostly Spain, Italy, and Greece). Moreover, with lesser competition from Ukraine, wheat exports from the EU-27 are projected higher. Wheat ending stocks are also projected down 0.5 million tons for China, as international prices for wheat are expected to be high enough to partly discourage imports. Projected ending stocks are down 0.5 and 0.3 million tons for Brazil and Argentina, respectively (higher projected wheat exports in both countries).

Higher beginning stocks are boosting ending stocks this month for Canada by almost 0.9 million tons to 5.9 million, while higher projected imports result in 0.5-million-higher stocks for both Iran and Turkey. For a number of other countries, ending stocks adjustments reflect production, trade, and consumption changes and are mostly offsetting.

Source: Wheat Outlook


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