World wheat trade for the international year 2012/13 is estimated to reach 145.3 million tons, up 1.6 million, the second highest after a record of 153.8 million tons in 2011/12. As the end of the July-June world trade year approaches, the pace of sales and shipments motivates a number of adjustments.
Australian exports are boosted 1.5 million tons to 20.5 million, reflecting a higher pace of exports of Australian wheat to Asian countries, Egypt, and Iran. The pace of Australian exports is expected to slow down in late fall, with increased competition from the EU-27 and Black Sea countries. Australian local 2012/13 marketing year (October-September) wheat exports are expected to grow by 1.0 million tons, or 0.5 million less than for the July-June international year. July-June exports are up 0.5 million tons for the EU-27, where the pace of export licenses support an increase and near-record-high corn imports free wheat for export. Exports are also increased for Russia (up 0.4 million tons), and for Brazil and Canada (up 0.3 million tons each). Small upward export changes are made for Thailand and Taiwan based on pace.
Partly offsetting export increases are 2012/13 wheat export reductions for India, down 0.5 million tons to 8.0 million, and smaller reductions for Paraguay and Sri Lanka.
Increases in 2012/13 import estimates are made for Egypt, up 0.5 million tons, with the private sector providing additional wheat supplies. For each of the following countries─Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, South Africa, and Sudan─wheat imports are up 0.2 million tons. Smaller changes are made for several other countries.
The U.S. wheat export forecast for the 2012/13 July-June trade year is reduced 0.7 million tons to 27.3 million (down 15 million bushels to 1,010 million in the June-May marketing year). The slow pace of shipments in May supports this reduction.