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Market Commentary

Afternoon Comments 05/24


Wheat futures were probably ripe for pre-holiday profit taking Friday after having surged Wednesday and Thursday. Traders were simply less willing to hold onto positions ahead of the three-day weekend. That seemed especially true with the equity markets under substantial pressure throughout the early going. July CBOT wheat futures declined 5.75 cents to $6.975/bushel to end the week, while July KCBT wheat plunged 7.75 cents to $7.4575, and July MGE futures fell 6.75 cent to $8.0575.
Market Info

Winter wheat conditions mixed

Wheat Outlook  |   February 12, 2013
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Winter wheat conditions at the end of January 2013 are not as favorable as last year for the Plains states that provide data about current crop conditions. Nebraska’s winter wheat crop, for example, has 50 percent rated poor to very poor and only 8 percent rated good to excellent. A year ago, only 3 percent of the state’s crop rated poor to very poor and 65 percent was rated good to excellent.

Winter wheat conditions are also worse this year than last in Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Kansas at the end of January 2013. In Oklahoma, 69 percent of the winter wheat is rated poor to very poor while only 5 percent is rated good to excellent. A year ago, only 9 percent of the Oklahoma crop was rated poor to very poor and 54 percent of the crop was good to excellent. In South Dakota, 66 percent of the winter wheat is rated poor to very poor while only 3 percent is rated good to excellent.

A year ago, 30 percent of the South Dakota crop was rated poor to very poor and 25 percent of the crop was good to excellent. In Kansas, 39 percent of the winter wheat is rated poor to very poor while 20 percent is rated good to excellent. A year ago, only 12 percent of the Kansas crop was rated poor to very poor and 49 percent of the crop was good to excellent.

Two other reporting States, Montana and Illinois, are in better shape than the Plains States. In Montana, only 9 percent of the crop rated poor to very poor and 41 percent rated good to excellent. A year ago at this time, the Montana crop had 12 percent rated poor to very poor and 26 percent rated good to excellent.

In Illinois, only 3 percent of the crop rated poor to very poor at the end of January and 67 percent rated good to excellent. A year ago at this time, the Illinois crop had 3 percent rated poor to very poor and 75 percent rated good to excellent.

According to USDA Drought Monitor maps, large part of Plains winter wheat area has been severely impacted by the lack of moisture. Spring rains will be especially important for the 2013 crop.

Source: Wheat Outlook


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