Wheat trade for 2012/13 reduced, U.S. exports unchanged

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According to the USDA's Wheat Outlook report, world wheat trade projected for the 2012/13 (July-June) international year is reduced modestly this month, down 0.8 million tons to 136.6 million.

Projected 2012/13 exports by Russia are cut 2.0 million tons this month to 16.0 million, due to expected lower production in the southern part of the country (the South and North Caucasus Districts, which being close to ports, usually export most of Russia’s wheat) and higher expected domestic prices.

Lower production estimates caused a decline in projected exports by Turkey, down 0.3 million tons to 3.7 million. Partly offsetting is an increase in the 2012/13 wheat export projection for India, up 1.5 million tons to 3.0 million. Wheat production has been steadily increasing in India since 2005/06, and beginning 2008/09 the output hit a new record each year.

India has not been exporting any significant amount of wheat since 2004/05, and its 2012/13 stocks are projected at 23.0 million tons. This reached the record level of 2001/02, when India was subsidizing wheat exports in order to relieve huge stocks. While the Government has allowed private wheat exports, domestic wheat prices used to be prohibitively high, but with both higher expected world prices this month and the recent depreciation of the rupee (Indian currency), some increase in private exports is anticipated.

Imports changes for 2012/13 trade year are almost offsetting, as a 0.2-million-ton increase in projected imports for Turkey is more than offset by a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Indonesia, while even smaller upward changes are made for Burkina and Macedonia, making import change this month inconsequential.

U.S. export forecast for 2012/13 is left unchanged this month. U.S. wheat production prospects were slightly down this month, and wheat supplies are down 1.4 million this month. While tighter supplies are expected to constrain U.S. exports in 2012/13, demand for U.S. wheat is expected to remain firm, especially given lower supplies and reduced export prospects in the countries of the Black Sea region and in Argentina, where local marketing year exports (December-November) are reduced 0.3 million tons to 6.2 million this month, or down 3.9 million tons on the year.

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