According to the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 44 million bushels as higher feed and residual disappearance more than offsets a reduction in projected exports.
Production for 2012/13 is raised 1 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the September 30 Small Grains report. Feed and residual use is projected 95 million bushels higher reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated higher-than-expected June-August disappearance. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels on the pace of shipments and sales to date and stronger expected competition.
Export projections are lowered for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is narrowed 15 cents on both ends to $7.65 to $8.55 per bushel.
Small revisions to 2011/12 feed and residual disappearance and seed use reflect recent updates to stocks and acreage.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 6.2 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower production for Australia, Russia, and EU-27. Production for Australia is lowered 3.0 million tons as a continuation of dryness through September during critical flowering and grain fill stages has reduced yield potential for this year’s crop.
Production for Russia is lowered 1.0 million tons reflecting the latest harvest reports that indicate lower yields and harvested area for spring wheat. Production is lowered 0.8 million tons for EU-27 mostly reflecting a reduction for the United Kingdom where excessive harvest-time rainfall has reduced production.
Other EU-27 country changes were smaller and mostly offsetting. Production is also reduced for Uruguay, Canada, Algeria, and Kyrgyzstan, each down 0.3 million tons based on the latest indications from government sources. Also reducing 2012/13 supplies this month is a 0.5-million-ton reduction in global beginning stocks mostly on higher 2011/12 exports for Australia.
Upward revisions for 2010/11 and 2011/12 Argentina production partly offset the Australia reduction. Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 2.4 million tons as higher feed and residual use in the United States, Canada, and EU-27 is offset by lower wheat feeding for Russia, lower food use for India, and the reduction in Thailand and Vietnam consumption driven by reduced Australia production and exports.
Australia exports are lowered 3.0 million tons for the 2012/13 local October-September marketing year and raised 1.0 million tons for the 2011/12 local year. Most of the reduction for 2012/13 is expected after June 2013 maintaining substantial competition for U.S. exports during the remainder of the 2012/13 June-May U.S. marketing year. Argentina 2011/12 exports are also raised 0.6 million tons for the local December- November marketing year further adding to pressure on U.S. exports during 2012/13.
Global wheat exports for 2012/13 are lowered 4.0 million tons with the Australia and U.S. reductions, and reductions of 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, for EU-27 and Canada. Increases of 1.0 million tons each for India and Russia are partly offsetting.
Smaller export changes include a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Uruguay and a 0.2-million-ton increase for Mexico. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 3.7 million tons lower mostly reflecting reductions for Australia, the United States, and Russia.