U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected lower this month. Exports are raised 25 million bushels supported by the stronger-than-expected pace of sales and shipments, particularly for competitively priced feed-quality wheat.

Projected exports of soft red winter and white wheat are each raised 15 million bushels on strong demand from Mexico and South Korea. Exports are also projected higher for hard red winter wheat, up 5 million bushels, based on sales and shipments to date. Projected hard red spring wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels as strong domestic premiums for spring wheat continue to limit demand.

Ending stocks for all wheat are projected 25 million bushels lower at 845 million. Based on prices reported to date and the lower expected carryout, the 2011/12 projected season-average farm price is raised 20 cents on the bottom end of the range to $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel.

World wheat production for 2011/12 is projected up 1.4 million tons this month, pushing the historical record even further. Projected global stocks are up beating the historical record of 1999/00. Projected global wheat trade is up, while strong demand and ongoing sales and shipments of wheat are boosting prospects for U.S. wheat exports this month despite record-high season average prices.

Source: Wheat Outlook