U.S. wheat exports in 2013/14 are projected at 25.5 million tons, down 2.5 million from the forecast for the previous year. Both projected U.S. wheat output and carryin stocks are expected to be lower in 2013/14, and the U.S. share in world wheat trade is expected to decline by almost 2 percent. Competition from the EU-25 and the Black Sea region is going to be intense, especially for market share of Egyptian imports.
The 2013/14 June-May local marketing year wheat exports are projected down 100 million bushels to 925 million. Normally U.S. wheat exports are relatively strong early in the marketing year because the U.S. crop is harvested earlier than in most other major exporting countries. However, this year, adverse weather is expected to delay the wheat harvest, partly reducing this competitive edge.
The July-June international trade year forecast for 2012/13 for U.S. wheat exports was decreased 0.5 million tons to 28 million because the pace of recent shipments and outstanding sales have been slower than anticipated. The accumulated shipment volume to date also supports the reduction.