U.S. wheat exports for 2011/12 July-June are projected to decrease 2.0 million tons this month to 28.0 million, down 22 percent on the year. The main reason for lower U.S. export prospects this month is larger wheat supplies in major competitors. Higher-than-expected wheat supplies in the main wheat-exporting countries of Canada, EU-27, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, coupled with rising domestic prices supported by record-high prices for corn, are expected to intensify competition and limit U.S. exports, particularly for durum and lower quality wheat.
Despite the comparatively strong pace of exports in July and August, the outstanding sales as of September 1, 2011 were 5.0 million tons, down more than 40 percent from a year ago when outstanding sales totaled 8.4 million tons. The total export commitment (July Census, plus August inspections, plus September 1 outstanding sales) comes to 10.0 million tons, versus 13.5 million last year, a decline of 25 percent.
Source: USDA-ERS Wheat Outlook (9/14/2011)