U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 30 million bushels this month as higher forecast winter wheat production is more than offset by lower area and production for durum and other spring wheat.
Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 30 million bushels, with a reduced outlook for exports more than offsetting an increase in expected feed and residual use. Exports are projected down 50 million bushels with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised. Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels,
reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are nearly unchanged.
The 2011/12 season-average farm price range is projected at $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel supported by higher projected prices for corn.
Increased wheat production in FSU-12, India, China, and the EU-27 supports this month’s larger projected world production, trade, and ending stocks. U.S. export prospects are reduced by the strong competition and lower supplies.