Reduced wheat exports partially offset higher feed, residual use

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Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 44 million bushels as higher feed and residual disappearance more than offsets a reduction in projected exports. Production for 2012/13 is raised 1 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the September 30 Small Grains report.

Feed and residual use is projected 95 million bushels higher reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated higher-than-expected June-August disappearance. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels on the pace of shipments and sales to date and stronger expected competition.

Export projections are lowered for hard red winter and soft red winter wheat. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is narrowed 15 cents on both ends to $7.65 to $8.55 per bushel. Small revisions to 2011/12 feed and residual disappearance and seed use reflect recent updates to stocks and acreage.

The world wheat production forecast for 2012/13 is lower 5.7 million tons this month, mostly because of reduced prospects for Australia. Global wheat trade is projected slightly lower. U.S. wheat export prospects are projected to decline. Wheat exports are expected to rise for Russia, India, and Argentina, while reduced exports are projected for three major wheat exporters − EU- 27, Australia, and Canada.


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