Record-high world wheat production projected
Global production for 2013/14 is up 7.6 million tons this month to 705.4 million as increases for the EU and FSU, as well as smaller increases for Canada, India, and Turkey, swamp reductions for Argentina, and Brazil.
Wheat production prospects for the United States are nearly unchanged. As projected, global wheat output would top the 2011/12 record by more than 8 million tons.
Wheat production for the EU, the world’s largest producer, is up 2.8 million tons this month to 141.4 million. The largest increase is projected for Spain, up 0.8 million tons to 7.7 million, which brings the country’s wheat yield to record high.
This past winter and spring Spain enjoyed a combination of very favorable precipitation and temperatures, and the wheat harvest there already has been completed. Overall good conditions in July, mostly warmer and drier weather in northern Europe, resulted in rapid wheat maturation and benefited countries from Ireland and the United Kingdom to France, Germany, and Poland — the major EU wheat producers.
Higher wheat production was also reported for Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary, where hot weather was beneficial for wheat harvesting, with a smaller increase for Lithuania.
Partly offsetting within the EU, yield prospects were slightly trimmed for Denmark, Austria, and Greece. Wheat production prospects in the FSU increased 4.7 million tons this month to 107.0 million, nearly 30 million tons higher than last year. For Kazakhstan, projected wheat production is up 2.5 million tons this month to 17.0 million.
Record-high precipitation levels in Akmola and better-than-average precipitation in the North Kazakhstan region (two of the country’s three major wheat-producing regions), combined with the moderate temperatures, have generated excellent growing conditions in the country.
An outstanding satellite vegetation index approaching the one in 2011 — which set a historical record for Kazakhstan wheat yield — fully supports this increase. Ukraine’s wheat production prospects are increased 2.0 million tons this month to 21.5 million. Despite a late spring that abruptly switched to dryness in the southern and eastern parts of the country, reports indicate high wheat yields, with already about 95 percent of wheat being harvested. However, the crop’s quality has been reduced by rain during harvest, with the estimated share of feed-quality wheat at 60 percent (20 percent last year), which increases the premium for milling-quality wheat.
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