U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower this month as reductions in expected domestic use mostly offset higher projected exports. Food use is projected 5 million bushels lower based on flour production data recently reported by the North American Millers’ Association for July-September 2011.
Feed and residual use is projected 15 million bushels lower as December 1 stocks, reported in the January Grain Stocks from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), indicate lower-than-expected disappearance during September- November. Seed use is raised 4 million bushels based on the winter wheat planted area reported in NASS’s Winter Wheat Seedings.
Projected exports are raised 25 million bushels based on the pace of sales and shipments to traditional markets. Increases for hard red winter, white, and soft red winter wheat more than offset a reduction for hard red spring wheat. Ending stocks are projected 8 million bushels lower at870 million.
The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per bushel on each end of the range to $6.95 to $7.45 per bushel. World wheat production in 2011/12 is projected up, adding another 2.5 million tons to world supplies this month, with 1.5 million tons of additional wheat coming from Kazakhstan.
Projected global stocks are up this month by 1.5 million tons to 210.0 million, the second-highest on record. U.S. 2011/12 export prospects are increased, reflecting commitments data for more than half the year.