Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 76 million bushels as lower expected domestic use and exports more than offset reduced production. Production is down 69 million bushels, mostly reflecting lower spring wheat output as estimated in the September 30 National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Small Grains report. With tighter domestic supplies and an increase in production in Canada, U.S. imports are raised 10 million bushels, 5 million bushels each for durum and hard red spring (HRS) wheat.
Domestic use is lowered 84 million bushels, with seed use reduced 4 million bushels on lower planted area and feed and residual use projected 80 million bushels lower on 1st quarter feed and residual use. All wheat food use for 2011/12 is unchanged; however, food use is lowered 15 million bushels for HRS wheat and raised an offsetting amount for hard red winter (HRW) wheat. U.S. exports for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels lower with HRS reduced 40 million and HRW reduced 10 million. The season-average price received by producers is projected at $7.10 to $7.90 per bushel compared with $7.35 to $8.35 last month. The higher 2011/12 wheat carryout projection and lower corn prices are both expected to limit seasonal price increases.
Increased foreign production is forecast for 2011/12, as well as larger beginning stocks, boosting world wheat supplies sharply this month. With projected use down, ending stocks are projected at a 10-year high. Global wheat trade is projected higher, while U.S. wheat export prospects continue to decline. Wheat exports are projected to rise for Australia, Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan.