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World wheat 2012/13 ending stocks are projected up 1.2 million tons this month, to 174.2 million, with lower projected use more than offsetting reduced supplies of wheat.

Alternatively, foreign ending stocks are projected down 0.2 million tons, to 155.0 million, as this month’s U.S. stocks’ increase considerably exceeds the decline in foreign ending stocks. The small reduction in foreign stocks reflects larger partly offsetting changes in individual countries. The largest reductions in wheat ending stocks are the changes for Ukraine and Russia.

With higher projected exports only partly offset by reduced feeding, ending stocks in both countries are projected down 1.5 and 0.5 million tons, respectively. With sharply reduced production prospects, Australian stocks are down just 0.2 million tons, as lower projected exports largely absorb the production cut. Downward production revisions also resulted in lower ending stocks for Turkey and Bangladesh, down 0.3 and 0.2 million tons, respectively.

Production revisions for 2011/12 and 2012/13 pushed wheat stocks up in Pakistan and China by 0.9 and 0.5 million tons, respectively. Higher projected imports in Egypt are expected to be partly stored, raising their stocks 0.3 million tons. Stocks in Japan are projected up 0.2 million tons, while smaller increases of about 0.1 million tons are made for Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova, and Taiwan. Even smaller adjustments are made for several countries.

Source: Wheat Outlook

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