Global 2012/2013 wheat disappearance trimmed

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Projected world wheat use is trimmed slightly, down 0.5 million tons at 673.5 million tons, while foreign wheat domestic use is down 1.5 million tons. For Russia, reduced production and higher projected exports lead to lower forecast wheat feed and residual use, down 0.5 million tons this month to 12 million.

In Russia, both pork and poultry numbers continue to grow at a high rate, and compound feed production is growing rapidly, reaching record-high levels.

As discussed in November (see http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/ers/WHS//2010s/2012/WHS-11-14- 2012.pdf), feed and residual use does not directly reflect the actual amounts being fed to animals, and therefore may not accurately reflect the dynamics of the country’s livestock industry.

Rather, feed and residual use may reflect other data problems -- in this case, what may be under-reported grain production data. A 0.8- million-ton reduction in world local marketing year wheat exports, and a 0.2- million-ton increase in local marketing-year imports, further reduce world wheat use by 1.0 million tons.

With foreign wheat consumption down more than production, foreign ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected up slightly by 0.7 million tons this month to 157.1 million. The largest increases in projected ending stocks (0.5 million tons each) are for Australia and Canada, with reduced export prospects.

Stocks for Iran are up 0.2 million tons, reflecting higher projected imports. Stocks are projected lower for Russia and Ukraine, down 0.3 and 0.2 million tons, respectively, on higher projected exports in both countries and a lower wheat output in Russia.


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