Foreign wheat supplies down slightly

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The USDA's Wheat Outlook report showed that world wheat production for 2011/12 is projected up just 0.3 million tons to 694.3 million this month, while global supplies slightly decrease by 0.5 million tons, with a 0.8-million-ton reduction in world beginning stocks.

The wheat harvest in most countries was completed months ago, and this month’s revisions reflect new information received mostly from government agencies. The partly offsetting revisions in wheat production are for Syria, Pakistan, South Africa, Egypt, and Iran. In Syria, reports from procurement agencies and information about on-farm wheat stocks suggest a production increase of 0.6 million tons to 3.9 million.

In Pakistan, where the wheat harvest was completed in April 2011, the wheat production estimate is up 0.2 million tons to 24.2 million. Wheat output is also up 0.1 million tons to 1.9 million in South Africa, where the final official estimate confirmed a record wheat yield. Partly offsetting are two 0.3-million-ton reductions in wheat production: for Egypt, where area harvested is estimated slightly lower, and for Iran as reported by the country’s Ministry of Agriculture (Iranian 2010/11 wheat output is also down 0.5 million tons). Changes smaller than 0.1-million ton in wheat production are made for Mexico, Chile, Japan, and Jordan.

The 2011/12 foreign (and global) wheat balance is tightened this month. Slightly lower wheat supplies (lower beginning stocks that are partly offset by a production increase) and higher feed and residual consumption leave projected world ending stocks for 2011/12 down 3.3 million tons.

Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are down 0.8 million tons this month. Stocks have been reduced for Iran, down 1.0 million tons with lower production in two consecutive years and higher 2010/11 feed use; and for Japan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan a combined 0.5 million tons. Beginning stocks are projected higher for Jordan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Yemen, and Libya for a total of 0.7 million tons. Smaller (less than 0.1 million tons) changes in beginning stocks are made for Bangladesh, Colombia, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, and Uruguay.

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