Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised this month, with an increase in beginning stocks and higher forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are higher, with a 15-million-bushel reduction in 2012/13 exports as May shipments fell below expectations.
Projected production for 2013/14 is up 23 million bushels as higher yields boost forecast production of hard red winter wheat in the Southern and Central Plains and soft red winter wheat across the South and Midwest. Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher for 2013/14, with strong early-season sales and a reduced outlook for foreign production this month. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected down 11 million bushels. Projected stocks of 659 million bushels remain at a 5-year low. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is raised 10 cents on both ends to $6.25-$7.55 per bushel. This is down from the record $7.80 per bushel expected for 2012/13.
Reduced production prospects in Ukraine and Russia this month lower those countries’ export prospects, boosting projected exports for the United States and some other exporting countries. With reduced global supplies, both projected use and ending stocks are down this month.