Domestic wheat situation and outlook: 2011-2012 supplies

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Total projected supplies for 2011/2012, at 2,982 million bushels, are unchanged from December. Supplies for 2011/2012 are 297 million bushels below 2011/2012. Lower beginning stocks and production were only slightly offset by higher expected imports year to year.

Projected supplies of hard red winter (HRW), hard red spring (HRS), and durum are down year to year, mostly because of reduced production. HRW production is down from last year because of reduced harvested area and lower yields. Year to year, the planted area for the 2011 HRW crop is slightly smaller than 2010, but the rate of abandonment is up sharply and yields are down from the previous year due to the severe drought on the Central and Southern Plains. HRS and durum production are down from a year ago with lower planted and harvested areas and lower yields. Excessive moisture and cool temperatures on the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings.

Projected supplies of soft red winter (SRW) and white are up from 2010/2011, mostly because of larger production. SRW production is up from last year because of larger harvested area and higher yields. The 2011 crop area recovered from 2010, when a rain-delayed row-crop harvest and low prices reduced SRW seedings in the fall of 2009.

Due to excellent weather conditions through much of the season, production was up significantly from the previous year, with production in many of the SRW States up more than 100 percent from 2010. White wheat production was up due to both higher area and yield.

All-wheat 2011 production is estimated at 1,999 million bushels, unchanged from December, but down 208 million bushels from 2010. All-wheat harvested area is estimated at 45.7 million acres, unchanged from December and down 1.9 million acres from last year. The U.S. all-wheat estimated yield is 43.7 bushels per acre for 2011, unchanged from December, but down 2.6 bushels from the record high of 46.3 bushels in 2010.

Estimated 2011/2012 carryin stocks of HRS and SRW are down sharply year to year. The carryin stocks for the other classes are nearly unchanged. Projected all-wheat imports for 2011/2012 are unchanged from December, but up 23 million bushels year to year, mostly due to higher HRS and durum imports. Imports of HRS and durum are projected higher year to year because of tighter U.S. supplies for these classes of wheat.

There are small class changes for projected imports this month from December based on pace to date. Projected SRW imports are raised 5 million bushels. Imports of durum and HRS are lowered 3 million bushels and 2 million bushels, respectively, offsetting the SRW increase.


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