According to the USDA's Wheat Outlook, projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 51 million bushels with reduced carryin and lower forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are lowered 40 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel increase in food use and a 30-million-bushel increase in exports for 2011/12. The increase in 2011/12 food use reflects higher-than-expected flour milling during the January-March quarter as reported by the North American Millers’ Association. Exports are increased based on the strong pace of U.S. shipments during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year.

U.S. all wheat production for 2012/13 is projected at 2,234 million bushels, down 11 million, with lower forecast winter wheat production and small reductions in forecast durum wheat production for Arizona and California. Winter wheat production is forecast 10 million bushels lower with reductions for hard red winter (HRW) and soft white winter wheat.

The largest production declines are in the HRW states of Nebraska and Colorado, but higher production for Oklahoma partly offsets those declines. With reduced supplies and higher expected prices, feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 41 million bushels lower. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is raised 10 cents on both ends to $5.60 to $6.80 per bushel. This remains well below the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.

World wheat production for 2012/13 is projected down 5.5 million tons to 672.1 million this month. Russian wheat output is projected down 3.0 million tons to 53.0 million, 3.2 million lower than last year. Wheat production prospects in the EU-27 and Turkey are each lowered 1.0 million tons. Lower beginning stocks take world supplies down an additional 1.5 million tons, exacerbating the production decline. Reduced wheat supplies cut both projected use and ending stocks for 2012/13.