U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower this month with higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations.

Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels each for hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and raised 5 million bushels for white wheat. Projected all-wheat exports for 2012/13 are unchanged, but HRW and hard red spring (HRS) wheat are lowered 25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively.

Offsetting these reductions are projected increases in SRW and white wheat exports of 25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively. By-class export changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date. The projected season-average farm price for wheat is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $7.70-$8.10 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies are forecast slightly higher this month, with a small production decrease offset by increased beginning stocks. Global wheat use and ending stocks for 2012/13 are virtually unchanged. World wheat trade in 2012/13 is projected to be down slightly with U.S. exports down 0.5 million tons on the July-June world trade year.

Source: Wheat Outlook