Will we run out of soybeans?
With USDA’s pipeline for ending stocks needing some 125 million bushels, there will only be 813 million bushels available for consumption during the final six months of 2013. He says consumption in 2012 for the same period was 17% larger than the 813 million bushels we will have left, and the rate of consumption will have to be cut by 33% during the last half of the marketing year.
Good says the potential need to do a better job of rationing supplies along with the estimate of soybean acreage will both contribute to soybean prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The pace of soybean exports has been quite high, in relation to the relatively short soybean crop of 2012. With relatively strong domestic crush of soybeans, the stocks expected to remain available at the end of the month could be the least since March of 1989, which had to ration the short crop of 1988. Combining exports, domestic crush, and feed-seed-residual, the remaining soybeans on hand in US bins could be 813 million bushels, which would require a 33% cut in consumption compared to last year, if supplies are to hold by the end of the marketing year.
Source: FarmGate blog