Crop forecaster sees 2013/14 U.S. soy harvest up 15 percent

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Crop forecaster Lanworth on Wednesday said it expects U.S. soybean production to rise to 3.465 billion bushels in the 2013/14 crop year, based on average yield of 43.1 bushels per acre.

"Rotation practices, lack of increase in expected corn profitability, and likely planting pace indicate that soybeans could capture a greater share of total corn and soybean area than last year and could see stronger planted area gains than corn in 2013," Lanworth said in a report.

It was Lanworth's first U.S. soybean forecast for the 2013/14 crop year. In the 2012/13 crop year, USDA reported U.S. soybean production was 3.015 billion bushels with an average yield of 39.6 bushels and plantings of 77.2 million acres.

Lanworth trimmed its outlook for U.S. corn production to 13.7 billion bushels, down from 13.8 billion bushels in a report issued two weeks ago, due to small changes to Lanworth's corn plantings outlook.

The forecaster also cut its forecast of U.S. wheat production to 1.910 billion bushels from 1.932 billion.

In South America, Lanworth reduced its expectations for corn and soybean production in Argentina following extreme dry conditions in January and early February.

The company cut its forecast for Argentine soybean production to 49.6 million tonnes from 51.6 million. It lowered its Argentine corn production estimate to 25.0 million tonnes from 25.1 million.

Lanworth raised its forecast for Brazil corn production to 75.8 million tonnes from 75.6 million and its estimate of Brazil soybean production to 81.0 million tonnes from 80.3 million.

The forecaster's estimates of wheat harvest in Russia and Ukraine were left unchanged, at 49.9 million tonnes and 23.0 million, respectively. Its forecast for Kazakhstan wheat production was lowered to 15.5 million tonnes from 16.5 million.

Lanworth is a brand of Thomson Reuters Commodities Research and Forecasts. A Lanworth spokesman said the reported estimates are the midpoints of confidence ranges and are best understood in the context of Lanworth's full report.


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