U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2013/14 are unchanged from last month. Changes for 2012/13 include increased soybean imports and crush, and reduced exports. Soybean imports are raised 5 million bushels to 25 million based on relatively strong imports through April and expected additional gains through the end of the marketing year.
Soybean exports for 2012/13 are reduced 20 million bushels to 1.33 billion bushels reflecting exceptionally low shipments and sales in May and competition from Brazil. Although soybean exports are reduced, U.S. soybean meal exports are increased this month reflecting strongerthan-expected shipments this spring as importers have been slow to shift to South American supplies. As a result of increased soybean meal exports, the U.S. soybean crush is projected at 1.66 billion bushels, up 25 million. Soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from last month.
The 2013/14 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, up 25 cents on both ends of the range. The higher forecast reflects improved forward pricing opportunities and higher corn prices. Soybean meal prices for 2013/14 are forecast at $290 to $330 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 47 to 51 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 490.8 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month. EU-27 rapeseed production is reduced 0.3 million tons to 19.7 million on lower area and yield, mainly for France. Other changes include reduced soybean production for Ukraine, reduced sunflowerseed production for the EU-27, and increased sunflowerseed production for Russia. Brazil’s 2012/13 soybean production is reduced 1.5 million tons to 82 million reflecting the impact of dry conditions in the northeast.
Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report